Atmospheric River-Cyclone Events Disrupting an Antarctic Peninsula Field Campaign: Dynamics, Mesoscale Wind Amplification, and Long-Term Context

Resumen: Extreme weather in the Antarctic Peninsula arises from interactions among large-scale circulation variability, atmospheric rivers (ARs), extratropical cyclones, and complex coastal terrain, yet the linkages across these scales remain insufficiently resolved. We examine an austral-summer storm sequence in early January 2025, when three storms within 8 days disrupted a glaciological field campaign in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, forcing repeated shutdowns and transfer of personnel. Reanalysis diagnostics show that recurrent Bellingshausen Sea cyclones, together with a blocking ridge over the Atlantic-Scotia sector, sustained poleward flow and repeatedly directed ARs toward the Peninsula. Wave decomposition indicates that the hemispheric circulation was largely described by combined wave-1 and wave-3 components. Active Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 6-7 in late December, followed by phases 8-1 in early January, coincided with a transition toward negative Southern Annular Mode conditions. Lagged climatological composites support this sequence as a plausible preconditioning pathway for enhanced meridional moisture transport toward the Peninsula. High-resolution Polar-WRF simulations show that these synoptic conditions produced strong terrain-modified wind amplification over only a few kilometers, with wind speeds exceeding 20 m s−1 at the campsite while nearby coastal areas remained partially sheltered. Forecast diagnostics indicate scale-dependent predictability, with the broader storm and moisture environment largely captured for the third storm, whereas local near-surface winds remained more uncertain. In the longer record, detected warm-season AR-affected days increase more clearly than cyclone counts, suggesting that moisture-laden, successive storms and terrain exposure may become increasingly important contributors to Antarctic Peninsula operational risk.

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